Our prognosticators were able to reach consensus or unanimity in six out of Oscar’s ten top categories. They figure that if the Academy perceives The English Patient‘s Anthony Minghella as having inherited the mantle of David Lean, his trophy shelf should look like the mantel of David Lean as well. But the mirror has two faces, and 8 out of 12 soothsayers anticipate that Old Hollywood will sentimentally acclaim Miss Lauren Bacall as Best Supporting Actress over four deserving competitors (not to mention the unnominated Renee Zellweger and Courtney Love). For our part, we salute and thank David Ansen (Newsweek), Sheila Benson (Microsoft Cinemania), John Hartl (The Seattle Times), Dave Kehr (New York Daily News), Gregg Kilday (Entertainment Weekly), Todd McCarthy (Variety), Andrew Sarris (New York Observer), Richard Schickel (Time), Gavin Smith (Film Comment), Anne Thompson (longtime West Coast Editor of Film Comment, now with Premiere), Kenneth Turan (Los Angeles Times), and Michael Wilmington (Chicago Tribune). Below are their predictions, not necessarily their preferences, in the top categories. We’ll see who shines on March 24. BEST PICTURE
THE ENGLISH PATIENT UNANIMOUS FARGO JERRY MAGUIRE SECRETS AND LIES SHINE
DIRECTING
Anthony Minghella, THE ENGLISH PATIENT (DA, JH, DK, GK, TM, AS, GS, RS, AT, KT, MW) Joel Coen, FARGO (SB) Milos Forman, THE PEOPLE vs. LARRY FLYNT Mike Leigh, SECRETS & LIES Scott Hicks, SHINE
ACTOR
Tom Cruise, JERRY MAGUIRE (TM, GS, AT) Ralph Fiennes, THE ENGLISH PATIENT Woody Harrelson, THE PEOPLE VS. LARRY FLYNT Geoffrey Rush, SHINE (SB, JH, GK, AS RS, KT, MW) Billy Bob Thornton, SLING BLADE (DA)
ACTRESS
Brenda Blethyn, SECRETS & LIES (SB, DK, TM, AS, GS, MW) Diane Keaton, MARVIN’S ROOM (RS) Frances McDormand, FARGO (DA, JH, GK, AT KT) Kristin Scott Thomas, THE ENGLISH PATIENT Emily Watson, BREAKING THE WAVES
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Cuba Gooding Jr., JERRY MAGUIRE (DK, TM, AS RS, AT, KT MW) William H. Macy, FARGO (GK) Armin Mueller-Stahl, SHINE Edward Norton, PRIMAL FEAR (DA, SB, JH) James Woods, GHOSTS OF MISSISSIPPI (GS)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Joan Allen, THE CRUCIBLE (AT) Lauren Bacall, THE MIRROR HAS TWO FACES (DA, SB, JH, DK, TM, AS GS, KT) Juliette Binoche, THE ENGLISH PATIENT Barbara Hershey, THE PORTRAIT OF A LADY (RS) Marianne Jean-Baptiste, SECRETS & LIES (GK, MW)
SCREENPLAY BASED ON MATERIAL PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED OR PRODUCED
THE CRUCIBLE (KT) THE ENGLISH PATIENT (DA, SB, JH, DK, GK, TM, GS, AT MW) HAMLET SLING BLADE (AS, RS) TRAINSPOTTING
SCREENPLAY WRITTEN DIRECTLY FOR THE SCREEN
FARGO (JH, GK, TM, MW) JERRY MAGUIRE (DA, SB, GS, RS, AT, KT) LONE STAR SECRETS & LIES SHINE (DK, AS)
CINEMATOGRAPHY
THE ENGLISH PATIENT (John Seale) UNANIMOUS EVITA (Darius Khondji) FARGO (Roger Deakins) FLY AWAY HOME (Caleb Deschanel) MICHAEL COLLINS (Chris Menges)
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A CHEF IN LOVE (Georgia) KOLYA (Czechoslovakia) (SA, SB, JH, DK, GK, TM, AS, GS, RS, AT KT) THE OTHER SIDE OF SUNDAY (Norway) PRISONER OF THE MOUNTAINS (Russia) RIDICULE (France) (MW)
